Bitcoin rose to its highest level in two weeks, passing $66,500 Monday morning, after the US and Iran struck a deal to end the conflict.
Bitcoin has shot up 3.5% in the past 24 hours as the risk-on environment returns. But while the asset is starting the week on an optimistic note, some analysts remain cautious, saying that it still faces several headwinds.
Nic Puckrin, cofounder of Coin Bureau, told Sherwood News that while President Trump just handed the markets the “biggest disinflationary event of 2026,” and while bitcoin shot up on the news, there’s more weighing down the price than just the Iran war.
Puckrin said he is not seeing anything in the chart to suggest the return of the structural bull trend, including the fact that bitcoin hasn’t recovered any of the key levels he’s been watching, such as the 200-week exponential moving average.
“If it confidently climbs above $70K and reclaims previous support levels, like $74K, that would give me more confidence. Until then, this is looking more like a dead cat bounce,” Puckrin said.
While the Iran deal could ease oil prices and inflation concerns, Roy Kashi, cofounder and CEO of Falconedge, said the move looks more like a relief rally for now.
Given the scale of the recent sell-off, the rebound feels relatively disappointing, he said. “Importantly, there has been little in the way of technical confirmation that the correction is over, suggesting it may be too early to call a definitive trend reversal,” Kashi said.
The looming US-Iran agreement means bitcoin will face “an interesting test,” Daniela Hathorn, a senior market analyst at Capital.com, said.
“During much of the conflict, crypto has traded like a high-beta risk asset with geopolitical uncertainty coinciding with ETF outflows, higher yields, and weaker sentiment,” Hathorn said.
The key question is whether improving sentiment can offset the headwind of still elevated interest rates, she said.
“Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to liquidity conditions, so investors will continue to watch inflation data and the Fed’s policy outlook closely,” Hathorn said.
The first area she’s watching on the upside is the mid-$60,000s, followed by the previous swing highs around $70,000. On the downside, a break back below recent support would raise questions about whether the recovery is losing momentum, she said.
The other driver pressuring bitcoin has been sustained massive ETF outflows in the past weeks. So far in June, they have registered $2.04 billion in outflows.
But bitcoin ETFs saw a modest $85.8 million in inflows on Friday, breaking a streak of five consecutive days of outflows. While it’s too early to tell whether institutional appetite has resumed, the weekly outflow ebbed to $315.8 million, following four consecutive exits over a billion dollars.
Rajiv Sawhney, head of international portfolio management at Wave Digital Assets, noted that while Friday’s first green shoot is not significant in and of itself,…
Read More: Bitcoin hits highest level in 2 weeks following news of Iran deal
