There’s been a notable change in appetite for NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) shares in the week since its first-quarter report, with the stock down 15% to US$5.20. Revenues of CN¥26b arrived in line with expectations, although statutory losses per share were CN¥0.20, an impressive 75% smaller than what broker models predicted. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company’s performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We’ve gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from NIO’s 27 analysts is for revenues of CN¥137.0b in 2026. This would reflect a huge 36% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 81% to CN¥0.71. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥130.3b and losses of CN¥1.69 per share in 2026. There’s been a pretty noticeable increase in sentiment, with the analysts upgrading revenues and making a very promising decrease in loss per share in particular.
See our latest analysis for NIO
There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$6.92, perhaps suggesting that the analysts remain concerned about ongoing losses despite the improved earnings and revenue outlook. That’s not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on NIO, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$9.01 and the most bearish at US$4.00 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business’ future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It’s clear from the latest estimates that NIO’s rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 50% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 22% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 15% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it’s pretty clear that NIO is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
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