2026 banking and capital markets outlook

The global banking industry is entering a transformative phase in 2026 as financial institutions navigate economic uncertainty, rapid technological disruption, evolving customer expectations, and intensifying regulatory oversight. According to insights published by Deloitte, banks worldwide are accelerating investments in artificial intelligence (AI), digital infrastructure, cybersecurity, and modern payment systems to remain competitive in an increasingly digital financial ecosystem.

• According to Deloitte, the global banking industry is increasing technology investments as generative AI adoption accelerates across customer service, fraud detection, and risk management operations.
• The Bank for International Settlements reported that cross-border payment revenues globally are projected to exceed USD 300 billion annually by 2030 due to rising digital transaction volumes and fintech expansion.
• According to International Monetary Fund, global economic growth is forecast at approximately 3.3% in 2026, influencing lending activity, credit demand, and banking sector profitability worldwide.
• The Statista estimates that the number of digital banking users worldwide is expected to surpass 3.6 billion users by 2026, driven by rapid smartphone adoption and mobile payment growth.

Sustaining growth while balancing optimism and caution in 2026

The range of possible scenarios for the US economy in 2026 remains wide, with possibly yet another year of surprises for the US banking industry. Banks will likely be watching carefully for the impact of tariffs and the strength of the labor market. At this point, there are at least three possible scenarios for how the US economy might evolve in 2026.

In the downside scenario, the impact of tariffs on inflation and economic growth could be apparent as the year unfolds, with the potential for higher inflation and a more stressed labor market. GDP growth could stall or even turn slightly negative for a quarter. The US dollar could also continue to lose ground.

Conversely, in the upside scenario, these risks could remain dormant and keep the economy humming without any major hiccups.

A third, more probable, baseline scenario is the middle path. In this scenario, the economy is predicted to stumble briefly in 2026, but the setback is short, and recovery follows with GDP growth reaching about 1.4% in 2026, down from 1.8% in 2025.

Looking ahead to 2026, consumer sentiment could be further tested, dampening spending in a meaningful way. Household debt, as of the second quarter of 2025, reached a peak of $18.4 trillion. Consumer confidence has also declined recently, but there is a bifurcation in sentiment: The affluent continue to spend and feel more confident, while the middle class is feeling “squeezed.” The year-over-year spending growth for lower income households was 0.3%, compared with 2.2% for higher-income households in August…