Note: The following is an excerpt from this week’s Earnings Trends report. You can access the full report that contains detailed historical actual and estimates for the current and following periods, please click here
Here are the key points:
Q4 earnings growth improves to +9.5% once the Energy sector’s drag is removed from the aggregate numbers, but the growth pace drops to +4.0% once the Tech sector’s substantial contribution is excluded.
Q4 earnings for the ‘Magnificent 7’ group of companies are expected to be up +20.7% from the same period last year on +12.3% higher revenues. Excluding the ‘Mag 7’ contribution, Q4 earnings for the rest of the index would be up only +3.4% (vs. +7.4%).
The Tech sector has been a significant growth driver in recent quarters, and the trend is expected to continue in 2024 Q4 and beyond. For Q4, Tech sector earnings are expected to be up +14.6% from the same period last year on +10% higher revenues, the 6th quarter in a row of double-digit earnings growth.
This would follow the sector’s +22.5% earnings growth on +11% higher revenues in 2024 Q3. As the chart below shows, the sector’s growth trajectory is expected to continue in the coming quarters.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
In addition to the Tech sector’s strong growth profile, the sector is also among the few sectors whose earnings outlook is steadily improving. This shows up in the revisions trend that remains positive for the Tech sector, both for Q4 and full year 2025.
Take the examples of Nvidia NVDA and Meta Platforms META. The current Q4 Zacks Consensus EPS estimate for Nvidia of 84 cents is up from 78 cents two months back. The same consensus EPS estimate for Meta of $6.76 has increased +7.1% over the last two months.
The chart below shows the Q4 aggregate revisions trend for the Zacks composite proxy for the Tech sector.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Earnings Big Picture
The chart below shows expectations for 2024 Q4 in the context of what was actually achieved in the preceding four periods and what is currently expected for the next three quarters.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Estimates for 2024 Q4 have declined since the quarter got underway, but the pace and magnitude of negative revisions is less than we had seen in the comparable period of Q3. You can see this in the chart below that shows how Q4 estimates have evolved in recent weeks.
Read More: Earnings Growth Expected to Broaden Beyond Tech
