Hong Kong’s IPO market is set to improve over the next five years

BEIJING — The market for initial public offerings in Hong Kong is set to improve significantly over the next five years, starting in the second half of this year, George Chan, global IPO leader at EY, told CNBC in an interview Wednesday.

“I think it will take a couple years to go back to the peak [in 2021] but the trend is there,” Chan said. “I can see the light at the end of the tunnel.”

High U.S. interest rates, regulatory scrutiny, slower economic growth and U.S.-China tensions have constrained Greater China IPOs in the last three years.

EY said in a report that while the volume of IPOs and proceeds in the U.S. increased significantly in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period a year ago, mainland China and Hong Kong saw a sharp decline in listings.

Many of the macro trends are now starting to turn around, which can support more IPOs in Hong Kong, said Chan, who is based in Shanghai.

“We are seeing a reversing trend,” he told CNBC. “We are seeing more of these [U.S. dollar] funds, they are moving back to Hong Kong. The main reason is that Hong Kong has already factored in these uncertainties.”

The Hang Seng Index is up more than 5% year-to-date after four straight years of decline — which was the worst such losing streak in the history of the index, according to Wind Information.

“Our HK cap markets team is very busy and has a strong pipeline for H2.  We expect to see many HKSE listings,” Marcia Ellis, global co-chair of private equity practice at Morrison Foerster in Hong Kong, said in an email Wednesday.

Many companies that were waiting for a listing in mainland China’s A share market have decided to switch to one in Hong Kong, she said. “Previously [China Securities Regulatory Commission] approval was slowing things down but recently our team has gotten CSRC approvals pretty quickly.” 

In June, China issued new measures to promote venture capital, and authorities spoke publicly about supporting IPOs, especially in Hong Kong. Investors and analysts said they are now looking at the speed of IPO approvals for signs of a significant change.

Chan said another supportive factor for Hong Kong IPOs is that many of the companies listed in the market are based in mainland China, where economic growth is “quite satisfactory.”

He expects consumer companies could be among the near-term IPO beneficiaries.

“As the economy slowly recovers, a lot of people in China are willing to spend,” he said, noting that was especially the case in less developed parts of the country.

Official national-level data have showed that retail sales are growing more slowly in China — up by just 3.7% in May from a year ago versus growth of nearly 10% or more in prior years.

Also significant for global asset allocation, the U.S. Federal Reserve and other major central banks are pulling back…