Serafin Real Estate’s new report finds only about 2% of the region’s 709 licensed childcare centers change hands each year, with cap rates near 7% and new lease rents up about $9.50 per square foot.
— Serafin Real Estate (SRE), the Leesburg commercial real estate brokerage led by Joe Serafin, today released The SRE Early Education & Childcare Report, a 2026 special edition on childcare center, preschool and private school real estate in Loudoun, Fairfax and Prince William Counties.
The report pairs CoStar sales and lease data since 2016 with SRE’s own transaction records. It gives childcare property owners, operators and investors a clear view of what centers are worth, how often they trade and who is buying in the Northern Virginia commercial real estate market.
Key findings:
- Limited supply. The three counties have 709 licensed childcare centers: 121 in Loudoun, 417 in Fairfax and 171 in Prince William. Only about 2% change hands in a typical year, and just 28% sit in a freestanding building.
- Buyers are back. About $70 million of childcare centers traded in 2025 and the first nine months of 2026, after just $3.8 million in 2024.
- Prices held. Childcare center sales since 2024 averaged $475 per square foot, up from $359 in 2016 to 2018.
- Cap rates near 7%. NNN childcare investment sales averaged a 6.96% cap rate since 2024, up from 6.36% in 2022 and 2023.
- Landlords have leverage. Reported rents on childcare leases signed since 2023 averaged $36.00 per square foot, about $9.50 above 2016 to 2022. Vacancy is 0% in Fairfax, 2.3% in Prince William and 3.8% in Loudoun.
- Private capital dominates. Since 2019, 78% of buyers were private individuals and families, including 1031 exchange investors and owner-operators.
“Licensed childcare buildings rarely come to market in Northern Virginia,” said Joe Serafin, Owner and Principal Broker of Serafin Real Estate. “Most owners sell a center once in their lifetime. This report gives them the same data the buyers have, so they can plan a sale, a lease or a succession on their own terms.”
“Depending on the situation, we can sell a center quietly,” Serafin added. “Our large database of childcare buyers, together with our proprietary software and marketing system, lets us launch an offering confidentially, so families, teachers and enrollment are protected.”
Since its founding in 2019, Serafin Real Estate has represented the seller in 43% of childcare and school sales in Loudoun, Fairfax and Prince William Counties where CoStar reports a listing broker, six times as many as the next-closest firm. * SRE also represented the landlord on 21% of all childcare leases in the three counties over the same period.
Recent SRE childcare and school closings featured in the report include:
- The $17 million sale of the former Arcola Elementary School campus in Aldie to Loudoun County
- A $15.3 million NNN portfolio sale of two Guidepost Montessori…
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