Bitcoin tumbled through the $81,000 support level on Thursday, triggering $489 million in forced liquidations within a single hour as a confluence of government asset transfers, geopolitical tensions, and hawkish Federal Reserve signals converged to shake cryptocurrency markets.
The world’s largest digital asset fell to roughly $81,000 on Bitstamp, its lowest level since September 21, according to TradingView data. The breakdown below the $82,500 range floor that had held for the past month came as traders grappled with three separate catalysts: a $1.01 billion Bitcoin transfer linked to U.S. government seizure wallets, reports that the White House was weighing pre-midterm military strikes on Iran, and meeting minutes showing Fed officials expect another rate hike before year-end.
Arkham data showed Thursday that wallets connected to the U.S. government moved 12,267 BTC from a Bitfinex hack seizure wallet to new, unlabeled addresses. The absence of any exchange deposit in the transaction pointed to wallet reshuffling rather than an outright sale, but the move followed heavier exchange-bound activity a day earlier, when roughly 3,200 BTC worth about $264 million, along with $119 million in USDT, landed at Coinbase Prime deposit addresses. Those funds traced back to wallets tied to the FTX/Alameda and Bitfinex seizures.
The high-frequency movement of large sums stoked concerns about potential selling pressure. Prediction market Kalshi Crypto posted on X that its traders were forecasting Bitcoin to crash to $78,000 this month following the transfer.
Geopolitical Risk and Rising Yields
The crypto selloff coincided with a broader risk-off backdrop driven by rising oil prices and renewed pressure on long-term U.S. interest rates. The Atlantic reported Wednesday that the White House asked the Pentagon to develop strike options against Iran that could be executed before the November 3 midterm elections. U.S. Central Command is drawing up the plans, though officials cautioned that limited strikes would not restore safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz or lower gas prices before Election Day.
Oil prices have historically risen when the U.S. resumes strikes after a pause, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed to $93.20 per barrel, its highest since October 2, while Brent reached $105.88. President Donald Trump denied plans to attack Iran “at any time prior to the Midterm Elections” on Truth Social, but Bitcoin failed to recover.
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield set a new 24-year high of 5.73% before easing to around 5.65%, reinforcing concerns about higher-for-longer rates. The 10-year yield touched 5.36%, also the highest since 2002.
Fed-related expectations shifted further toward a December 0.25% hike, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, with the probability surpassing 70% by Thursday. Meeting minutes released Wednesday showed Fed officials expect another interest rate increase before…
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