investors eye key inflation data

The 10-year Treasury note yield rose at the start of the week as oil prices climbed and investors looked ahead to a busy week of economic data, with particular focus on a key inflation reading.

The benchmark yield gained more than 4 basis points to 4.705%, while the 30-year Treasury bond traded up more than 4 basis points as well to 5.251%. The 2-year Treasury note yield rose more than 3 basis points to 4.241%.

One basis point equals 0.01%, and yields and prices move in opposite directions.

Oil prices advanced on Monday, with U.S. crude futures hitting $80 per barrel, as uncertainty among investors grew that the U.S. and Iran would reach a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

This comes after President Donald Trump told Axios over the weekend that the U.S. is “only semi-negotiating” with Iran, saying, “We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money.”

U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures gained about 5.1% to close at $82.13 per barrel, and oil stockpiles in the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve have fallen below 300 million barrels — the lowest since January 1983. Brent crude, the global benchmark, was higher by 5% at $87.72.

Meanwhile, a softer-than-expected July nonfarm payrolls report last week weakened expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Deutsche Bank analysts said in a note on Monday that the weaker data “reduced the urgency for further Fed tightening in the near term.”

Traders are now pricing in a nearly 52% chance that the central bank will raise rates at its September meeting, down from a 67% reading seen a week prior, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

They will now look ahead to inflation data for July set to be released on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET. The consumer price index inflation reading could “go a long way towards tipping the balance for September [Fed] pricing,” Deutsche analysts added.

This will be followed by the producer price index on Thursday, as well as weekly initial jobless claims. Friday will see retail sales data for July and the preliminary Michigan consumer sentiment index.