Amazon Earnings Preview: All Eyes on AWS As Investors Want AI Payoff

Amazon is set to report first-quarter earnings on Wednesday, and investors will be looking to see if the company’s AI spending is paying off.

Wall Street will have its eyes on one part of its business most closely: Amazon Web Services, Amazon’s top profit driver.

The firm is expected to spend $200 billion in 2026 on AI projects like data centers and chip development as it looks to use AI to improve the AWS user experience, write software, and improve data storage.

Investors will want to see progress in AWS revenue growth for proof that all of that cash being dumped into its AI buildout is delivering meaningful returns. In Q4 2025, AWS revenue rose by 24% year-over-year.

The stock has had a stellar month, rising 29% over the last 30 days. Year-to-date, it’s up 14%, trading at around $260 a share.

Analysts expect net sales of $177.23 billion and earnings per share of $1.62.

Here’s what Wall Street analysts say to watch for when the company reports on Wednesday afternoon.

RBC Capital Markets

The bank says AWS revenues will be a crucial metric to watch as investors seek for clues that all of Amazon’s AI spending is paying off.

“We believe the 1Q26 print will be pivotal in demonstrating whether AWS can deliver acceleration sufficient to validate the $200B capex guide that exceeded all Street expectations,” analyst Brad Erickson wrote in a client note on Monday. Erickson said Amazon bulls will be looking for at least 30% year-over-year growth in AWS revenues.

RBC has an “Outperform” rating on the stock, and a price target of $300 a share, implying 15% upside.

UBS

UBS is uber-bullish on AWS, and says it expects Amazon’s cloud business to announce significant growth of 38% on revenues.

“Where we continue to diverge most meaningfully vs the Street is in the ramp in AWS revenue for 2026 — which currently remains at 38% (vs Street 26%), which then compounds into 2027,” wrote analyst Stephen Ju in an April 23 note. “Our 2027 Operating Income estimate is hence ~39% higher than consensus, and we continue to believe that the Street will catch up to where we are now.”

The bank has a “Buy” rating on the stock, with a price target of $304 a share.

Bank of America

Analyst Justin Post said he expects 28% AWS growth, and said that CEO Andy Jassy’s comments on AI would drive the stock.

One stat to keep an eye out for is quarter-over-quarter profit margin growth for AWS, he said.

“In our view, the…