US President Donald Trump speaks to reporters while in flight on Air Force One, traveling from Shannon, Ireland en route Joint Base Andrews in Maryland on January 22, 2026.
Mandel Ngan | Afp | Getty Images
U.S. President Donald Trump‘s warning that a U.S. “armada” is heading toward Iran has deepened concern of potential military action in the Middle East, pushing oil prices higher amid fears of supply disruption.
“We’re watching Iran,” Trump told reporters Thursday on Air Force One. “You know we have a lot of ships going in that direction just in case. We have a big flotilla going in that direction and we’ll see what happens.”
The U.S. president also repeated his push for Tehran not to restart its nuclear program, echoing comments made to CNBC at the World Economic Forum earlier in the week.
Oil prices, which fell around 2% in the previous session, were trading higher Friday morning.
International benchmark Brent crude futures with March delivery rose 1.8% to $65.20 per barrel at around 1:04 p.m. London time (8:04 a.m. ET). U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with March delivery, meanwhile, were last seen up 1.8% at $60.44.
Trump’s comments come as the death toll from Iran’s crackdown on nationwide protests reached at least 5,002, according to Human Rights Activists News Agency, with nearly 27,000 arrested. HRANA, a U.S.-registered nonprofit, relies on an activist network inside Iran for its reporting.
The demonstrations, which began in Tehran’s bazaar on Dec. 28, have been fueled by growing frustrations over a long-running economic crisis, particularly the government’s handling of a sharp fall in the nation’s currency and soaring prices.
A woman with her face painted with the colors of the Iranian flag during a protest outside the Spanish Parliament.
Marcos Del Mazo | Lightrocket | Getty Images
Trump appeared to back away from threats of military action against Iran last week, telling reporters that he’d been informed by “very important sources” in Tehran that “the killing has stopped.”
The U.S. president’s latest warning to Iran, however, alongside a U.S. naval buildup in the Gulf region, has put energy market participants on tenterhooks. Iran, a member of OPEC, is a major player in the global oil market, producing more than 3 million barrels of crude a day.
Iran’s ‘only redeeming factor’
Aditya Saraswat, MENA research director at Rystad Energy, said in a research note that there were three likely scenarios for Iran’s oil flows: sustaining the status quo, making progress in negotiations with the Trump administration, or preparing for regime change sparked by U.S. intervention.
“Iran’s familiar tactics, such as closing the Strait of Hormuz, banking on its trade with China and threatening nuclear escalation, are still on the table, yet must be weighed by their own potential for backfiring on the regime,” Saraswat said Monday.
The Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, is recognized as one of the world’s most important oil…
Read More: What Trump’s renewed attack on Iran could mean for oil prices
