When Bitcoin (BTC +1.54%) first hit $100,000 back in December 2024, it was a landmark moment. Crypto had finally arrived, and Bitcoin was going mainstream. In fact, Bitcoin seemed to be on a rocket ship to $1 million.
That’s why Bitcoin at $77,000 feels so empty. It’s down 13% to start the year, despite every effort by the White House to make America the “crypto capital of the world.” So, is Bitcoin worth buying right now, or is it time to look elsewhere for a high-upside asset?
Bitcoin’s historical growth rate
For much of its history, Bitcoin has been able to produce triple-digit returns with impressive regularity. Most recently, in 2024, Bitcoin returned 121% to investors. And in 2023, Bitcoin returned 156% to investors. In fact, in seven of the past 14 years, Bitcoin has delivered triple-digit returns.
Image source: Getty Images.
However, it’s almost mathematically impossible to keep up this blistering pace over an extended period of time. Bitcoin is not going to double in value, year in and year out, forever. From August 2017 to April 2026, Bitcoin grew at a stunning compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38.25%. That growth rate would be much higher, except that Bitcoin tends to suffer a major market decline every four years.
Most likely, those days are over. Even Michael Saylor, co-founder and executive chairman of Strategy (MSTR 3.01%), thinks so. He now thinks Bitcoin will average an annual growth rate of 30% over the next 20 years. That’s higher than the growth rate that investors can expect from most tech stocks, but lower than Bitcoin’s historical growth rate.
Will Bitcoin hit $100,000 this year?
So, are you comfortable with 30% returns from Bitcoin? If so, then Bitcoin is a buy right now. If you’re expecting more from Bitcoin, in exchange for all the risk you are taking on, then you might want to look elsewhere. I’ve circled both artificial intelligence and space exploration as two high-growth opportunities that could outpace crypto.
For the sake of argument, let’s assume that Bitcoin is able to produce a 30% return in 2026. Given its current price of $77,000, that works out to a price of $100,000 by the end of the year.
Today’s Change
(1.54%) $1173.14
Current Price
$77542.00
Key Data Points
Market Cap
$1.6T
Day’s Range
$76053.00 – $77703.00
52wk Range
$60255.56 – $126079.89
Volume
23.5B
Just how likely is that? Online prediction markets give it a 40% chance of happening. That sounds interesting, except for one fact: Bitcoin also has a 40% chance of falling all the way to $50,000 this year. In other words, Bitcoin is just as likely to gain 30% as it is to lose 35%.
That’s why, if you’re thinking about buying Bitcoin, you need to be thinking about the long haul. If Bitcoin really is able to crank out 30% returns, year after year, for the next 20 years, then you’re going to benefit from compounding returns. By 2045, a single Bitcoin will be worth almost $10 million. Owning even a small amount of Bitcoin today could put you on the path to…
Read More: Should You Buy Bitcoin While It’s Under $100,000?
