Traders are betting on big moves in Intel on earnings

Semiconductor stocks are powering the U.S. equity market to records in recent days and traders are predicting that means a big swing in shares of Intel after earnings after the bell Thursday.

Options are pricing in a $6.23 move on the report, a roughly 9% swing. That wouldn’t be out of the ordinary for the chipmaker: Shares slid as much as 18% after reporting fourth-quarter earnings in January before staging a 50% rally just this month alone.

The semiconductor group is up 145% in the past year, and Intel’s been a key leader, climbing more than 230% over that period.

The catch is, the stock has dropped after three of its last four earnings reports.

Sentiment looks like it’s shifting more bullish this time around. There are about as many puts trading as calls, but options traders are paying beefier premiums in upside calls, with total call premiums nearing $100M versus $50M in puts, according to data compiled by SpotGamma.

One big bullish trader this morning spent $2.2 million buying 3,200 $70 strike calls expiring June 18. Given the stock’s recent history of dropping after earnings, that seems less like a bet on the direction Friday and more that the stock will find footing in its long-term uptrend that’s been in play since last summer.