Oil nears $100 again as doubts grow about U.S.-Iran peace talks

Crude oil prices jumped Tuesday as doubts grow that the U.S. and Iran will meet for peace talks, stoking fears that the war in the Middle East will resume after the ceasefire ends tomorrow.

Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, rose 3% to close at $98.48 per barrel. U.S. oil futures advanced nearly 3% to settle at $92.13.

Prices rose after it became clear that Vice President JD Vance had not departed for Pakistan, where peace talks with Iran were supposed to resume.

Vance’s trip was put on hold because Iran failed to respond to American negotiating positions, a U.S. official with knowledge of the situation told The New York Times. The talks have not been cancelled and the trip could happen at a moment’s notice, the official told The Times.

Senior Iranian officials, meanwhile, have not publicly committed to participate in the talks. Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said Monday in a social media post that Tehran would “not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats.”

Iran’s foreign minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi on Tuesday condemned the U.S. naval bockade of the country as “an act of war and thus a violation of the ceasefire.” Araghchi said the U.S. seizeure of an Iranian cargo ship Sunday “is an even greater violation.”

“Iran knows how to neutralize restrictions, how to defend its interests, and how to resist bullying,” Araghchi said in a social media post Tuesday.

Ceasefire ends Wednesday

The delay raises the risk that the U.S. and Iran will not reach an agreement before the ceasefire ends. President Donald Trump told CNBC Tuesday that he is not interested in extending the truce with Iran. The ceasefire expires Wednesday evening U.S. eastern time, Trump told Bloomberg News.

Trump told CNBC that he expects to secure a deal with Iran but is ready to resume the war if negotiations fail. 

“What I think is that we’re going to end up with a great deal,” the president told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “I think they have no choice. We’ve taken out their navy, we’ve taken out their air force, we’ve taken out their leaders.”

Trump said he expects “to be bombing because I think that’s a better attitude to go in with.”

The president dismissed rising oil prices as “peanuts” and said he is surprised that prices are not much higher. “If you would have told me that oil is at 90 as opposed to 200 I would be frankly surprised,” he said.

The oil supply disruption will only worsen this month as tanker traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz remains very low, said Paola Rodriguez-Masiu, Rystad Energy’s chief oil analyst.

The Gulf states are expected to produce 14.3 million barrels per day in April, a decline of 3 million bpd compared to March levels and about 13 million bpd below pre-war levels, Rodriguez-Masiu told clients in a Monday note.