Ken Rosen, moderator and managing director with Andersen; Emi Adachi, managing director and co-head of global research at Heitman; Tom Errath, managing director of research and strategy at Harrison Street; and Sabrina Unger, managing director and head of research & Strategy at American Realty Advisors.
Economic forecasters gathered on the final day of the ULI Fall Meeting at the Moscone Convention Center in San Francisco to analyze the current landscape and future expectations for the economy. The ULI Real Estate Economic Forecast, a semiannual survey of leading industry experts, served as the backdrop for discussions about how 33 key economic and real estate indicators are projected to move by the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027.
Ken Rosen, managing director with Andersen, moderated the panel and opened it by sharing a crucial consensus forecast that projects economic growth around 2 percent for the next three years—a significant decline from post-Covid boom levels. The event featured a lively debate among prominent economists and analysts who participated in the Real Estate Economic Forecast survey. They discussed how forecasts have shifted over the past six months, the impact of tariff realities and uncertainties on commercial real estate, and the signals the panelists are watching for as they think about the future.
“We predict about 3.8 percent growth this quarter,” Rosen noted, emphasizing the need for careful monitoring of emerging trends. Looking ahead, he expressed concerns that external factors could significantly affect growth potential as we move toward 2026. “While we have a solid base case, we must stay alert to downside risks as the year progresses,” he added.
Optimism amid caution
Emi Adachi, managing director and co-head of global research at Heitman, echoed a cautious yet optimistic perspective. “While we align with the consensus, we anticipate a slightly better growth trajectory due to forthcoming policy changes and the benefits of deregulation,” she said. “If key regulations are relaxed under the new administration and we continue to see advancements in artificial intelligence, I believe we might see growth…
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