How Recent Earnings and AI Partnerships Are Shaping Mastercard’s 2025

Thinking about what to do with Mastercard stock? You’re definitely not alone. It seems like every investor has a story about seeing Mastercard soar in their portfolio or, if they were late to the game, wondering if the best returns are already in the rearview mirror. With Mastercard’s stock closing at $579.84 recently, you’re probably noticing the impressive 17.3% gain over the past year, not to mention a 106.0% jump in the last three years. Even in the short term, Mastercard has managed a 1.9% uptick in just the last week. Sure, it dipped slightly over the past month, but the overall momentum speaks to its resilience and the market’s confidence in its long-term role in global payment networks.

There’s no ignoring, though, that investors are paying close attention to valuation right now. With changing economic conditions and shifts in digital payments, there’s always the question: Are you paying too much, or is there more room to run? On a scale where 6 means deeply undervalued, Mastercard currently posts a value score of 1, indicating it passes just one of the six undervaluation checks. That raises eyebrows, but it’s not the whole story.

Next, let’s rewind the valuation scoreboard and break down exactly how these different methods stack up against Mastercard’s price. And stick around, because before we’re done, I’ll share a better lens through which to view Mastercard’s value, one that goes beyond the usual numbers.

Mastercard scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

The Excess Returns valuation model offers a unique way of measuring value by focusing on the profitability a company generates above its cost of equity. Simply put, it evaluates whether Mastercard is producing outsized returns on shareholders’ capital, and if that performance is sustainable for the future.

For Mastercard, the numbers tell a powerful story. With an average return on equity of 195.26% and stable earnings per share estimated at $28.96 (from a consensus of 12 analysts), the company consistently delivers robust profits on its capital base. Mastercard’s stable book value per share is forecasted at $14.83, while its current book value stands at $8.67 per share. The cost of equity is just $1.10 per share, but Mastercard generates an excess return of $27.85 per share, which demonstrates its ability to far exceed basic investor expectations.

Using these inputs in the Excess Returns model, the estimated intrinsic value for Mastercard stands at $652.70 per share. With the recent market price at $579.84, this suggests the stock is trading 11.2% below what this profitability-based model considers its fair value.