With spring in full bloom, so is North Bay real estate marketplace

Coming off two years of essentially flat sales volumes akin to where they stood more than three decades ago, when our North Bay population totaled 757,000, our local real estate markets see behaviors changing and an appetite to get back to normal … but that takes time, consistent affirming data points and an understanding that as market conditions improve there will be setbacks or misses along the way.

According to BAREIS MLS, with March’s data now tabulated, we see further affirmation of trends taking hold. Sonoma County buyers successfully entered agreements to purchase 358 single-family homes in March – 21% ahead of last year at this time. But property owners delivered only 312 new offerings during the month – 30% fewer than a year earlier along with being another new historical low for the period. Buyers managed to complete purchases on 252 dwellings – 13% behind the 290 units that transferred ownership in 2024.

Now, with spring in full bloom, so is the marketplace. This month, buyers will be surveying 780 available homes Sonoma County – a welcome 58% bounce above the 30-plus-year low we experienced last year at this time. As the new year continues to open, buyers have reignited the home buying process once again and will be assessing the current offerings, as well as new ones, and determining whether to purchase.

This will show up in a common market measure: the absorption rate, which is calculated by dividing the total number of homes sold in a month by the total number of homes available for sale at the end of the same month. A high absorption rate – 20% and above – indicates that the supply of available homes will shrink, thereby increasing the odds that an owner will sell a property in a shorter period. Conversely, an absorption rate below 15 percent is indicative of a buyer’s market, meaning homes are selling more slowly. March’s activity in Sonoma County left us once again with an elevated reading of 32%, meaning that unless a robust amount of new inventory shows up without buyers jumping on it, this could lead to market forces that cause prices to experience an uptick as our year pushes forward. If interest rates move lower, into the 5% to 6% range, then look out!

Marin property owners introduced 155 new single-family offerings in March – another all-time monthly low and 29% less than a year earlier. These very weak delivery numbers will continue to compound the challenges for buyers in Marin County and will continue to create a more competitive environment for both new and existing buyers in pursuit of making Marin their home. Buyers absorbed 207 homes in consummated contracts – 20% ahead of last year – while sellers completed sales on 166 dwellings during the period – 35% ahead of a year earlier – leaving the entire region…