Shein US IPO is dead, experts say

China-founded e-commerce company Shein’s hopes of going public in the United States are growing slimmer by the day, according to experts, as rising tensions between Beijing and the U.S. roil business and trade.

The company, last valued at $66 billion, confidentially filed to go public in the U.S. in November. Since then, it has faced resistance as it tries to join the American retail sphere, including through numerous rejected attempts to become a member of the National Retail Federation, the industry’s largest trade association, CNBC previously reported.

The e-commerce upstart filed to go public while becoming a household name in the U.S. by offering low prices and a facility to offer new styles quickly. The company is poised to take major market share from U.S. retailers, particularly Gap, TJX Companies and Macy’s, according to UBS data from last year, and continues to challenge Target, Walmart and Amazon.

But as political resistance to its U.S. IPO mounts, Shein is seemingly shifting gears, as it reportedly prepares to confidentially file for a £50 billion offering in London in the coming weeks. The company likely would have preferred to list in the U.S., because the offering could bring a higher valuation than in the U.K., said Angelo Bochanis, an IPO analyst at Renaissance Capital, which provides pre-IPO research and IPO-focused ETFs. 

But its path hasn’t been easy, as federal and state officials call on the Securities and Exchange Commission to scrutinize or even block the initial public offering in the U.S.

“Scrutinizing companies with high-profiles and roots in China is very politically in-vogue right now in the United States,” Bochanis said.

A London IPO could, in theory, be easier than a U.S. offering, according to Bochanis. With the British parliament dissolved and the London Stock Exchange “desperate for big wins” as it suffers an IPO drought, Shein could circumvent some of the hurdles that it might have otherwise faced, he said.

If Shein’s London IPO succeeds, it is unlikely to keep pursuing a U.S. offering, said University of Florida finance professor Jay Ritter, who studies IPOs.

Not all China-linked companies are getting tangled in the webs of rising political tensions. Chinese electric vehicle company Zeekr went public in the U.S. last month. It became one of the first prominent Chinese companies to do so in the U.S. even as the Biden administration has increasingly cracked down on Chinese-made electric vehicles.

Shein is “one of the few” China-tied companies that have gained deep brand awareness with U.S. consumers, Bochanis said.

The size of the potential offering, and the long, high-profile process accompanying it, have helped to make Shein an attractive target for politicians from both parties who want to look tough on Beijing-linked…