Weekly average mortgage rates just hit another 2026 high — but not all of the latest economic data spells doom and gloom for real estate’s busiest time of year.
Key points:
- The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.38% as of March 26, according to Freddie Mac’s weekly average, marking a new record for 2026.
- Mortgage applications slowed as a result of climbing rates — especially in the refinance sector.
- While the U.S. unemployment rate remains low, this may not be enough to offset the widespread economic uncertainty sidelining consumers this spring homebuying season.
The economic shocks caused by the war in Iran are starting to filter down into the housing market, threatening what is typically residential real estate’s busy time of year.
This week’s economic data brought to mind flashing red warning lights: Mortgage rates are up, applications to buy a home are down and new listings have slowed.
The silver lining? Some of the economic indicators that pointed earlier this year toward a busier spring season remain. While the U.S. labor market continues to soften, the unemployment rate remains low — and despite the recent rise in mortgage rates, affordability is slowly improving through wage growth and flat home prices.
“The most important thing that stands out to me is that the ingredients for improvement are there, but they need to work together,” First American Chief Economist Mark Fleming said in a recent podcast.
“Housing activity depends on several factors: labor market conditions, affordability, inventory — especially new listings — and, of course, mortgage rates,” he added. “But no single factor is decisive on its own.”
Inflation fears continue driving up mortgage rates
For now, housing market activity won’t get much help from mortgage rates. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.38% this week, according to Freddie Mac, while Mortgage News Daily pegged the daily rate at 6.62% as of midday March 26. The 30-year rate has been rising amid inflation concerns sparked by the continued volatility of oil prices and the war outlook.
“The ultimate impact to mortgage rates will depend on how long this conflict keeps oil prices elevated,” said Joel Berner, senior economist at Realtor.com. “Ultimately, the current upward pressure on mortgage rates, stemming from the war and inflation fears, serves as the primary barrier preventing the spring housing market from capitalizing on otherwise favorable inventory and price conditions.”
This month’s jump in oil prices is already resetting inflation expectations. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s latest forecast predicts a U.S. inflation rate of 4.2% in 2026, up from 3% in its previous forecast late last year.
If energy prices stabilize, 30-year mortgage rates could settle back down around 6%, said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist for Bright MLS.
“However, for now, the rebounding spring homebuying season many had been hoping for is being tempered by these external pressures, leading…
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