China’s Economic Involution: State and Business Strategies

[1] This article focuses on involution in industrial sectors. The term “involution” can be used to describe intense competition in other spheres of Chinese society as well, such as education. For a broader definition, see Patricia Thornton, “Punching Down: Beijing’s Playbook for Unwinding ‘Involutionary Competition,’” China Leadership Monitor, issue no. 86, 2025.

[2] Tianlei Huang, “China’s Looming Property Crisis Threatens Economic Stability,” RealTime Economics, Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2022.

[3] Yusho Cho, “China’s Local Debt Rises to $18.9tn as Property Slump Lingers.” Nikkei Asia, December 3, 2025. https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/china-debt-crunch/china-s-local-debt-rises-to-18.9tn-as-property-slump-lingers.

[4] Ling Chen, “Getting China’s Political Economy Right: State, Business, and Authoritarian Capitalism,” Perspectives on Politics 20 (4):1397–1402.

[5] Meg Rithmire, “China’s Perilously Imbalanced Economic Success,” Current History, September 2025.

[6] Michael Pettis, “What’s New about Involution?” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, August 26, 2025.

[7] Ling Chen, Manipulating Globalization: The Influence of Bureaucrats on Business in China. (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2018); Yuen Yuen Ang, How China Escaped the Poverty Trap (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2017).

[8] Gerard DiPippo, “Changing Course in a Storm: China’s Economy in the Trade War,” China Leadership Monitor, issue no. 85, Fall 2025.

[9] Alexandra Stevenson, “China’s Birthrate Plunges to Lowest Level Since 1949,” New York Times, January 18, 2026. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/18/business/china-population-data.html.

[10] Edward White, “China’s Industrial Profits Plunge as Weak Demand and Deflation Bites,” Financial Times, December 27, 2025.

[11] 蔡真, “买来的出口数据：耗费地方财政，对经济无实质带动.” 第一财经, December 29, 2025.

[12] “2025年十大内卷行业,” 新浪财经，https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-09-13/doc-infqkhhe8180064.shtml, September 13, 2025. Robin Xing and Zhipeng Cai, “Anti-Involution- Priority, Progress and Potential: Market, Sector and Stock Implications.” Morgan Stanley Research Note, September 1, 2025.

[13] 陶川、张云杰、钟渝梅, “反内卷”的下一步,” 华尔街见闻, July 3, 2025,

[14] DiPippo, “Changing Course in a Storm”; “十年前 ‘去产能,’ 十年后  ‘反内卷’?” 尤斯财富, July 22, 2025. https://www.usewealth.com/Information/Details.aspx?i=136134.

[15] 陶川、张云杰、钟渝梅, “‘反内卷’的下一步,” 华尔街见闻, July 3, 2025, https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3750355.

[16] Lizhi Liu, From Click to Boom: The Political Economy of E-Commerce in China (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2024).

[17] “Involution Fueled Alibaba’s E-Commerce Comeback,” November 5, 2025,