Blue Owl Capital’s (OWL) announcement this week that it would sell $1.4 billion in loans to raise liquidity for investors in a retail-focused private credit fund has triggered alarm bells across financial markets, with more than one prominent analyst drawing direct parallels to two Bear Stearns hedge fund collapses that foreshadowed the 2008 financial crisis — and for bitcoin investors, the implications could be profound.
While there was no damage across the major stock market averages, Blue Owl shares fell about 14% for the week and are now lower by more than 50% year-over-year. Other major private-equity players, including Blackstone (BX), Apollo Global (APO), and Ares Management (ARES), also suffered sizable declines.
It stirred some painful memories for those who suffered through the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC).
In August 2007, two Bear Stearns hedge funds collapsed after suffering heavy losses on subprime mortgage-backed securities, while BNP Paribas froze withdrawals in three funds, citing an inability to value U.S. mortgage assets. Credit markets seized up, liquidity evaporated, and what seemed like an isolated incident spiraled into the global financial crisis.
“Is this a ‘canary-in-the-coalmine’ moment, similar to August 2007,” asked former Pimco head Mohamed El-Erian. “There’s plenty to think about here, starting with the risks of an investing phenomenon in [artificial intelligence] markets that has gone too far,” he continued. El-Erian was quick to point out that while the risks could be systemic, they don’t appear to be anywhere near the magnitude of the 2008 crisis.
Blue Owl’s issue may or may not be another Bear Stearns moment, but if it is, what might that mean for bitcoin?
First, private credit stress doesn’t automatically mean bitcoin rallies. In fact, in the short term, tighter credit conditions can hurt risk assets, bitcoin and the broader crypto market among them. While bitcoin wasn’t around during the 2008 meltdown (more on that later), the price action as the Covid crisis was unfolding — about a 70% decline from mid-February 2020 to mid-March — is illuminating.
The U.S. government’s Federal Reserve’s eventual response, though, could be powerfully bullish for bitcoin. In 2020, trillions of dollars were injected into the economy, helping send BTC from a low of below $4,000 to more than $65,000 about a year later.
The 2007-2008 playbook followed a similar trajectory: initial credit market stress, equity market denial, banking sector contagion, then massive central bank intervention. If Blue Owl represents the “first domino” — as former Peter Lynch associate George Noble suggested — the sequence could repeat with private credit replacing subprime mortgages as the trigger.
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