Will the Stock Market Crash in 2026? The Federal Reserve Sends a Silent

The U.S. stock market is having a fantastic 2025 despite the economic uncertainty created by the Trump administration’s tax and trade policies. The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC +0.32%) added 16% year to date, nearly double the historical average.

However, the Federal Reserve has recently sent investors a “silent warning” about the economy, and elevated valuations across the stock market have sparked concerns about an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble. Against that backdrop, history suggests the stock market will decline (possibly sharply) in 2026.

Here’s what investors should know.

Image source: Official Federal Reserve Photo. Chairman Jerome Powell answers reporters’ questions at an FOMC conference.

Federal Reserve policymakers are unusually divided

Something strange happened when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met in December. While policymakers cut interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected, they were notably divided about the decision. Three FOMC members dissented, and they did so in opposite directions.

• Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid wanted to hold interest rates steady; Schmid has now dissented in favor of no rate cut at two consecutive meetings.
• Governor Stephen Miran wanted to cut interest rates by 50 basis points; Miran has now dissented in favor of a larger rate cut at three consecutive meetings.

Dissents are uncommon. No FOMC members dissented during the 19-year period from October 2005 to November 2024. Three dissents at the same meeting are unprecedented in recent history. It last happened in June 1988, according to Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management.

Multiple dissents are theoretically bad news for the stock market. If experts are divided on the appropriate monetary policy, it suggests that economic conditions are difficult to interpret, and the stock market dislikes uncertainty.

In this case, President Donald Trump’s tariffs are the root cause of the division within the Federal Reserve. The combined baseline and reciprocal tariffs have raised the average tax on U.S. imports to its highest level since the 1930s, meaning there is essentially no historical data (at least not recent data) to guide policymakers.

Tariffs have coincided with higher inflation and unemployment, putting Fed officials in a difficult position. Inflation will worsen if interest rates are too low, but unemployment will worsen if interest rates are too high. In short, policymakers cannot address both problems simultaneously.

Typically, inflation slows as unemployment rises (and vice versa), but Trump’s tariffs have distorted the economy. The fact that three policymakers dissented at the last FOMC meeting is a “silent warning” because it underscores the uncertainty created by that economic distortion.

The stock market’s valuation is abnormally…