Does Ryder’s 241% Five Year Rally Still Leave Room for Investors in 2025?

• Wondering if Ryder System is still worth buying after its big run, or if most of the upside is already priced in? You are not the only one taking a closer look at the stock right now.

• Ryder has quietly kept climbing, with the share price up 1.1% over the last week, 13.9% over the past month, and 22.4% year to date, building on 25.6% over 1 year and 241.1% over 5 years.

• Recent headlines have focused on Ryder expanding its logistics and fleet management offerings, along with strategic investments to strengthen its dedicated transportation and supply chain solutions. These moves can justify a re-rating when investors see durable growth. At the same time, the market is weighing how these initiatives might reshape Ryder’s long term competitiveness in a still cyclical transportation space.

• Despite that strong performance, Ryder currently earns a valuation score of 4 out of 6 on our checks, suggesting there may still be pockets of undervaluation. In the next sections, we will unpack how different valuation methods stack up, before finishing with a more holistic way to think about what the market might be missing.

Ryder System delivered 25.6% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Transportation industry.

A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a company is worth by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to today, reflecting the time value of money and investment risk.

For Ryder System, the model uses last twelve month Free Cash Flow of about $195 million in cash and projects a steep ramp up, with analyst supported and extrapolated forecasts rising to roughly $6.5 billion in annual Free Cash Flow by 2035. These projections are generated using a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model, where higher near term growth gradually tapers to more sustainable long term levels. Each of these future cash flows is discounted back to today and summed.

On this basis, Ryder’s intrinsic value is estimated at about $1,328 per share, implying the shares are trading at an 85.6% discount to this DCF value. This indicates the market is pricing in far weaker or riskier cash flow outcomes than this model assumes.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Ryder System is undervalued by 85.6%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 912 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Ryder System.