The Finance Roadmap That Could Reshape Climate Action At COP30

(Photo by PABLO PORCIUNCULA/AFP via Getty Images)

AFP via Getty Images

COP30 is swiftly approaching, and the stakes have never been higher. As world leaders prepare to converge on Belém, Brazil, three critical issues will determine whether we accelerate the transition to a liveable future or lag behind the action required; countries coming with ambitious 2035 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), a realistic restatement of 2030 targets, and – most crucially – the Baku to Belém roadmap that could fundamentally reshape how finance flows to where it’s needed most.

The roadmap prepared jointly by COP29 and COP30 presidencies as a way to continue work on finance from Azerbaijan to Brazil is not just another diplomatic nicety – its very existence saved the finance negotiations on the 2035 target in Baku.

Now countries need to leverage it to fundamentally reshape how financial systems work and direct flow to where they’re most needed.

The Ambition Gap We Cannot Ignore

So far, the world has not done enough to up its ambition in line with the goals of the Paris agreement. According to Climate Action Tracker’s October assessment , 65 countries have submitted new 2035 targets, representing just 35 per cent of global emissions and 32 per cent of the global population. Only two countries, Norway and the UK, have plans compatible with limiting warming to 1.5°C.

The richest countries have also struggled to meet their climate finance pledges in recent years. The USD100 billion target was only met two years after the original 2020 goal. The USD300bn target agreed at COP29 was met with wide criticism as it didn’t factor in inflation and could be met with little extra financial effort.

The remaining 65 per cent of global emissions – and 68per cent of the world’s people – now bear the responsibility for ambitious NDCs that match the scale of the crisis. Without them, the careful diplomatic choreography around finance mechanisms becomes meaningless. You cannot fund a transition that hasn’t been clearly defined.

The $1 Trillion Reality Check

Climate finance crossed a symbolic threshold in 2023, hitting USD1 trillion, according to CPI but it’s worth taking a closer look at where that money came from and where it’s going.

80 percent was mobilised domestically. China alone accounts for 64 per cent of all flows. Households contribute 25 per cent of the total. Meanwhile, the vast majority of international finance – 76 per cent remains public, not private. And within private finance, South-South flows play an oversized role.

The good news? Developing countries are not waiting for developed countries to act but mobilising domestic resources, with households themselves also investing in climate action.

The challenge? The countries that lack financial might like China’s or domestic capital markets, are falling further behind.

The fundamental question for Belém is not whether we can move money. It’s whether we can systematically redirect the…