Chipotle stock falls after Q3 earnings report

Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill tumbled as much as 19% in trading Thursday after the company cut its full-year same-store sales forecast for the third straight quarter.

Including Thursday’s move, the stock has fallen 45% this year, dragging its market value down to roughly $43 billion. At least five Wall Street analysts have cut their price targets for the stock after the report, anticipating investors’ displeasure with the burrito chain’s shrinking traffic and gloomy outlook.

“It’s difficult to call a bottom for sales given the multitude of factors weighing on demand,” Citi analyst Jon Tower wrote in a research note, revising his price target from $54 to $44 per share.

In the third quarter, Chipotle’s same-store sales rose 0.3%, but the chain’s traffic fell. While many restaurant chains have suffered in recent years as diners wracked by inflation eat out less, analysts were unsure if the chain’s value perception contributed to Chipotle’s issues. While its burritos and bowls average about $10, consumers often assume its average prices are closer to the $15 entrees of its fast-casual peers, executives said on the conference call.

“While we knew that traffic had slowed for Chipotle into the fall, we were surprised by the magnitude that was reported last night and the resulting deleverage this produced,” BTIG analyst Pete Saleh wrote in a note. “We’re admittedly perplexed by how suddenly this traffic weakness came about, and not convinced affordability concerns are the main driver here.”

CEO Scott Boatwright said on Wednesday’s earnings conference call that diners are visiting less frequently, particularly those between the ages of 25 and 35 years old, a key demographic for the company. Same-store sales have worsened so far in October, and the company is now projecting that sales at restaurants open at least a year will shrink in the fourth quarter and fall by a low-single digit percentage for the full year.

“We are very concerned that the menu and marketing actions taken so far have not sufficiently offset the traffic retraction,” Bernstein analyst Danilo Gargiulo said.

Still, most analysts attributed the slowdown to industrywide challenges, not company-specific issues that Chipotle needs to address. Unemployment, increased student loan repayments and slower real wage growth accounting for inflation are weighing on consumers’ spending, according to Boatwright.

“We believe the brand remains fundamentally healthy (stable share of customer restaurant wallet) and expect a return to growth as the macro improves,” Bank of America Securities analyst Sara Senatore wrote in a note to clients.

Chipotle’s weak performance bodes poorly for its fast-casual peers, like Sweetgreen and Cava. Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Harbour called fast-casual restaurants “This Season’s Halloween Scare” in his research note covering Chipotle’s earnings report.

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