‘Trump effect’ raises hopes for cannabis rally

Cannabis stocks could be poised for a rally after years of stagnation, fueled by investor optimism over the possibility for new federal rules for hemp-derived products and signals that President Donald Trump could take a more permissive stance on marijuana.

Publicly traded cannabis companies have seen their share of ups and downs. Verano Holdings reported earnings Wednesday that saw revenues of $203 million, up slightly from the previous quarter but down 6% year-over-year. However, Verano posted a net loss of $44 million, partly due to a $5 million impairment charge on a facility in Pennsylvania and $10 million in legal contingencies as a result of a settlement.

Next week, two U.S. cannabis giants, Curaleaf and Trulieve, are set to follow in reporting earnings. While the sector is down roughly 10% this year, based on cannabis-focused ETFs, some executives, like the CEO of Tilray Brands, remain optimistic for a turnaround. Already, in October, Tilray Brands‘ stock jolted up 22% after reporting better-than-expected fiscal first-quarter results.

“We could be looking at a true inflection point for cannabis. If reforms move forward, it could attract more companies to do business in the U.S.,” Tilray CEO Irwin Simon told CNBC.

Three developments are driving the growth: Trump’s seeming embrace of Medicare coverage for CBD, a non-intoxicating hemp-derived cannabis compound; the president’s statements about reclassifying the drug status of marijuana; and movement in Congress to regulate hemp.

Meanwhile, cannabis is becoming more popular than ever. As of a 2024 report, daily or near-daily marijuana use surpassed daily drinking in the U.S., based on analysis of 40 years of data from Carnegie Mellon University.

The annual value of the U.S. production of cannabis grew 40% last year from the previous year, according to the Department of Agriculture, and cannabis-derived products, which include CBD and marijuana-based items, are now projected to reach a $160 billion global market by 2032, according to Grand View Research.

Optimism in the cannabis market surged in September after Trump shared a video on Truth Social that promoted Medicare coverage of CBD and made unproven anti-aging claims about the substance. 

The video was produced by The Commonwealth Project — which advocates for seniors using cannabis and was founded and is funded by Palm Beach billionaire Howard Kessler — and directly appealed to the president.

Known for pioneering affinity credit cards, Kessler shifted to cannabis advocacy in 2019 but has been in Trump’s orbit since at least 2005, attending Trump’s wedding to Melania Trump and appearing at Mar-a-Lago and state dinners. Neither Kessler nor the White House responded to a request for comment on the matter.

Cannabis stocks reacted immediately to the video. On…