The Stock Market Faces Make-or-Break Tests: The Fed’s Interest-Rate

The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) has added 17% this year, despite economic headwinds surrounding the Trump administration’s trade policies. As of Oct. 12, 2025, the index has been in a bull market for three years, but the momentum could stall, depending on the outcome of several crucial events this week.

First, The Federal Reserve will announce its interest-rate decision after the conclusion of a two-day meeting on Oct. 29 at 2 p.m. ET. Chair Jerome Powell will provide additional context on the central bank’s monetary policy during a speech shortly thereafter.

Second, big tech companies Alphabet (GOOGL 0.59%) (GOOG 0.47%), Meta Platforms (META +0.15%), and Microsoft (MSFT +2.06%) will announce financial results after the market close on Oct. 29, followed by reports from Amazon (AMZN +1.00%) and Apple (AAPL +0.14%) after the market close on Oct. 30. Here’s how those events could move the stock market.

Image source: Getty Images.

The Federal Reserve will make a decision about interest rates on Oct. 29

In September, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point. That was the first cut since December 2024. Policymakers held rates steady for nine months while they awaited clarity on how President Trump’s trade policies would impact the economy.

Tariffs have simultaneously led to higher inflation (which can be corrected with rate hikes) and a weaker jobs market (which can be corrected with rate cuts). The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate: Keep prices stable and maintain maximum employment. But conflicting economic forces created by tariffs forced policymakers to prioritize one goal over the other.

Policymakers chose to prioritize a healthy labor market over lower inflation when they cut rates in September, but many economists expect consumer prices to trend higher in the coming months as companies pass along cost increases on tariffed products. So the Fed will once again have to choose which goal to prioritize at its October meeting.

Investors currently expect a quarter-point cut in October, followed by another quarter-point cut in December. The stock market could stumble if policymakers deviate from that path.

Today’s Change

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Several big technology companies will report earnings on Oct. 29 and Oct. 30

Five “Magnificent Seven” companies will announce their latest quarterly financial results this week. The news could move the market because those five companies collectively account for 25% of the S&P 500 by weight. Detailed below are the consensus estimates among Wall Street analysts:

• Alphabet reports on Oct. 29. Wall Street expects revenue to increase 6% to $93.9 billion and earnings to increase 7% to $2.27 per diluted share.
• Meta Platforms reports on Oct. 29. Wall Street expects revenue to increase 22% to $49.4 billion and earnings to increase 11% to $6.68 per diluted share.
• Microsoft reports on Oct. 29. Wall Street expects revenue to increase 15% to $75.2 billion and earnings to increase 11% to $3.66 per diluted share.
• Amazon reports on Oct. 30. Wall Street expects revenue to increase 12% to $177.8 billion and earnings to increase 10% to $1.58 per diluted share.
• Apple reports on Oct. 30. Wall Street expects revenue to increase 7% to $101.8 billion and earnings to increase 7% to $1.76 per diluted share.

For all five companies, investors should pay particularly close attention to commentary regarding artificial intelligence (AI). Consumer spending is usually the largest contributor to gross domestic product (GDP), but capital spending related to AI was the most consequential source of economic growth in the first half of 2025, according to JPMorgan Chase.

To that end, any indication that big technology companies are investing more conservatively or failing to benefit from past investments in AI infrastructure could raise concerns about the strength of the economy and cause the stock market to stumble.

Also, with the S&P 500 trading at 22.7 times forward earnings — a material premium to the 10-year average of 18.6 times forward earnings — any sign that profits will suffer due to tariffs could illicit a negative reaction. Alternatively, strong earnings coupled with strong guidance could strengthen the bull market and send the S&P 500 higher.