Key Facts
- Oil surges to a 7-week high as Russia halts fuel exports amid Ukrainian attacks, driving Brent crude up 4% on the week [1] [2]. Diesel prices spiked globally after Moscow’s ban on most diesel and gasoline exports, with European refining margins hitting the highest since early 2024 [3] [4].
- Gold hits record territory, peaking near $3,800/oz, on safe-haven demand and trade war jitters [5]. Strong U.S. economic data lifted the dollar and tempered Fed rate-cut bets, keeping gold steady around $3,748 on Friday [6]. Fresh U.S. tariffs by President Trump fueled some safe-haven flows, limiting gold’s downside [7]. Platinum hovered at 12-year highs as investors piled into precious metals [8].
- Copper climbs 15-month peak above $10,400/ton, propelled by supply fears [9]. A major Freeport mine outage in Indonesia (Grasberg) and China’s curbs on copper smelting expansion have tightened the market [10] [11]. Analysts warn the world’s No.2 copper mine disruption could push the market into deficit next year [12]. Other base metals (aluminum, zinc, nickel) also rose on the bullish sentiment [13].
- Wheat rebounds from contract lows as war and weather threaten supply. Chicago wheat futures jumped ~1% to $5.25½/bushel [14]. Traders cite escalating Ukraine-Russia conflict and dry planting conditions in the Black Sea region (Russia/Ukraine) as reasons for renewed buying [15]. Global demand upticks and Russian port bottlenecks added support.
- Corn & soybeans find footing: Corn rose ~0.8% as early U.S. harvest results show lower yields than expected [16]. Soybeans edged up from six-week lows (~$10.05) to ~$10.15 after Argentina ended a tax waiver that had flooded the market with Argentine soy [17] [18]. Chinese importers had aggressively bought Argentine soy during the tax break, underscoring China’s shift away from U.S. beans amid the trade dispute [19].
- Trump’s trade war escalates: On Sept 25, the U.S. unveiled broad new tariffs effective Oct 1 – including 100% duties on branded pharmaceuticals and 25% on heavy trucks [20]. In retaliation, China tightened export controls on critical minerals. Beijing’s curbs on rare earth elements (used in EVs, electronics and weapons) have U.S. and EU manufacturers scrambling for supply [21] [22].
- Critical minerals in focus: G7 nations met to counter China’s rare-earth dominance, weighing price floors and tariffs to spur non-China supply [23] [24]. China produces ~90% of rare earths and in April imposed export controls on specialized metals and magnets, squeezing Western tech and defense industries [25] [26]. European firms report delays getting Chinese export licenses, prompting talks of stockpiling and subsidies for new mines [27] [28].
- Fertilizer and fuel costs squeeze farmers: Fertilizer prices remain high – potash is up nearly 15% this year amid tariffs and war disruptions [29] [30]. A top fertilizer CEO warned U.S. farmers to brace for 25% higher input costs as trade tariffs get passed along [31]. The…
Read More: Global Commodities Soar as War, Weather & Tariffs Upend Markets (Sept
