Office investor demand way up in the first half of 2025, says JLL

A version of this article first appeared in the CNBC Property Play newsletter with Diana Olick. Property Play covers new and evolving opportunities for the real estate investor, from individuals to venture capitalists, private equity funds, family offices, institutional investors and large public companies. Sign up to receive future editions, straight to your inbox.

The recovery in the U.S. office market has been gaining steam this year and may be set to accelerate. While vacancy rates and return-to-office employee volume have been focal points in gauging demand, a new look at interest in office from the capital markets points to an even stronger recovery than previously thought.

JLL, a global commercial real estate and investment management company, gave Property Play exclusive access to a limited distribution client report. It found that office transaction momentum strengthened significantly in the first half of this year, with total industry volume up 42% year over year to $25.9 billion.

Looking at JLL’s office sales transactions alone, volume was up 110% from the first half of 2024 to the first half of 2025, more than double the momentum of any other major property type, including data centers. 

The report notes that as we move through the third quarter, JLL is actively seeing the transition from “office curious” to “office serious” take hold across the industry. Lower interest rates are propelling much of that.

In addition, the number of bids on a given transaction was up 50% over the same period, with the second quarter alone experiencing $16 billion in office bid volume, which is the highest quarterly total since the second quarter of 2022 when the 10-year treasury yield was below 3%. Bid volume can measure growth and health of a sector from a capital markets perspective. 

“What typically happens is, after a downturn, the high-net-worth private capital comes back in because of opportunistic returns, and they start buying. The REITs follow, and then the institutional capital flows, like pension funds, separate accounts, offshore capital, follow the REITs. That’s exactly what’s playing out right now,” said Mike McDonald, senior managing director and office group leader at JLL. 

Larger deal demand, that of $100 million or more, is increasing, up roughly 130% in the first half of this year compared with the same period in 2024. This is due to increasing institutional investor appetite for higher quality office, as well as better debt availability, according to the report.

There is, of course, a flight to quality, with top-tier office buildings seeing the bulk of the demand. As those buildings fill up, second-tier buildings will start to see…