How Italy’s banking M&A wave started crashing

By late spring, Italy’s banking world was swept up in a storm of convoluted takeover bids and counterbids involving a swathe of the country’s major lenders. Three months later, only one high-profile bid is still standing.

It started with UniCredit‘s July decision to drop the “drag” of its nearly 15-billion-euro ($17.5-billion) bid for Banco BPM on the cusp of the proposal’s natural expiry, citing the opacity of conditions imposed by the Rome administration via its “golden power” screening rules. Then, Mediobanca‘s shareholders this month voted against the lender’s roughly 7-billion-euro offer for Banca Generali, thwarting what was widely seen as a defensive play against state-backed Monte dei Paschi‘s (MPS) interest in at least 35% of Mediobanca.

MPS has yet to give up.

Consolidation is one recourse for Europe’s cash-flush lenders to bulk up their scale and compete with Wall Street’s historically more lucrative banking giants. The M&A appetite has gripped Europe’s lenders at a time of markedly improved performance in the sector, with restructuring programs, the European defense boost, higher investment banking returns amid U.S. tariff-led volatility and an increase in broader M&A dealmaking in Southern Europe bolstering bottom lines.

In particular, the entangled web of offers from several of Italy’s key lenders — with pack leader Intesa Sanpaolo notably absent — builds on long-brewing momentum in what Fitch Ratings in April billed as a “more fragmented” banking system than in some other European nations.

“Increased scale could enable banks to better support large corporate investments, including those linked to European and Italian defence sector initiatives,” the agency said at the time.

Italy’s economy has been fertile ground for banking growth of late. It has “outperformed most of its Eurozone peers in recent years, although momentum may ease in coming years as an investment boom driven by [Next Generation EU] funds and construction spending fades away,” Deutsche Bank analysts said in an August report, stressing the country will need to pivot toward a more consumption-driven economy — facing the incoming pressures of higher U.S. tariffs.

The International Monetary Fund forecasts Italy — where it pronounced “further improvement in banking sector soundness” in a July report — will notch 0.5% economic growth this year, outpacing Germany’s projected 0.1% expansion over the same period.

While the pace of Italy’s consolidation attempts has simmered, analysts say we’re far from a denouement.

“Of late we have seen Banca BPER successful taking over Banca Sondrio, and Illimity Bank acquired by Banca Ifis. Meanwhile Monte dei Paschi is resolutely marching on Mediobanca, and Banco BPM’s independence might be short-lived, with Credit Agricole launching towards a 20% stake,” said Filippo Maria Alloatti, head of financials for credit at…