Fresh Inflation Check Earnings continue to roll in this week and there is fresh inflation data on both the consumer and producer side. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq were all up between 1% and 2%. So far this year, the DJIA is up 4%, the S&P 500 has climbed 9%, and the Nasdaq leads with an 11% gain. The list of companies reporting earnings this week includes Cardinal Health and CAVA Group on Tuesday; Cisco Systems on Wednesday; and Applied Materials and Deere on Thursday. The big retailers, including Walmart, will report next week. At this point, 80% of S&P 500 companies have reported so far, with 13% growth in earnings compared to the year-ago quarter. That is much better than was expected at the start of reporting season. Communication Services is leading, up 49%, while Energy, down 13%, is at the bottom. This week’s economic calendar includes several inflation reports. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be reported on Tuesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) comes out on Thursday. Data on retail sales and consumer sentiment will be released on Friday. Turning to other data, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecasts GDP of 2.5% for 3Q. That follows the 3.0% reported for 2Q and contraction in the first quarter. The Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast forecasts a 2.9% rate for CPI in August, suggesting a climb in prices. Mortgage rates inched down last week, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 6.63%, according to FreddieMac. Gas prices went up two cents to an average of $3.14 per gallon for regular gas. The next fed Federal Reserve rate decision is on September 17, and odds have jumped to 90% for a cut, according to the CME FedWatch rate tool. After that, the next meeting is on October 29, when odds for a cut jump to 96%. Taking a deeper dive into performance, U.S. stocks are lagging global stocks. A leading industrialized global stock market index, the EFA ETF, has surged 20% year to date, while the leading emerging market ETF EEM has gained 18%. U.S. growth stocks, with a year-to-date gain of 10% (ETF ticker IWF), have taken the edge over value stocks, which have logged an advance of 6% based on the value ETF IWD. In other asset classes for the year to date, AGG Bonds are up 2%, gold is up 33%, crude oil is down 10%, and Bitcoin is up 25%. The U.S. dollar is down 9%, tracking DXY. The VIX Volatility Index is back at 15, below its historical average of 20 (which aligns with a bull market). Sector performance reveals a mixed picture halfway through 2025. Industrials lead all sectors with a 15% gain, followed closely by Information Technology (+13%), Communication Services (+13%) and Utilities (+13%). Defensive sectors like Consumer Staples (+3%) and Materials (+4%) are middle of the pack, while Consumer Discretionary (-2%) and Healthcare (-5%) remain in negative territory for the year. Real Estate (+2%) is up, but continues to struggle amid elevated interest rates.
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