Trump tariff effects on back-to-school shopping for 2025

Although inflation is cooling, President Donald Trump’s new tariff rates are threatening to drive prices higher, which could leave some parents in a bind amid the back-to-school shopping season.

Families are now paying more for some key back-to-school essentials, such as backpacks, ahead of the new school year. CNBC used the producer price index — a closely followed measure of inflation — to track how the costs of making certain items that students need changed between 2019 and 2025.

In the face of more expensive gear, many families are prepared to cut back.

Back-to-school spending for K-12 students is estimated to reach a collective $30.9 billion, or an average of roughly $570 per child this year, according to a new 2025 back-to-school retail survey by Deloitte. However, that is down from $586 in 2024, even with higher prices across categories. Deloitte polled more than 1,200 parents in May.

“This season, we’re expecting families to approach back-to-school season with a bit of caution as some concern about the economy and their own personal financial situations are top of mind,” said Brian McCarthy, a principal in Deloitte’s retail strategy & analytics practice.

Trump’s initial “liberation day” tariff agenda, which set a 10% baseline levy for nearly all countries as well as much higher duties on dozens of nations, was set for April 2, but those higher rates were paused for 90 days. On Monday, Trump signed an executive order delaying the tariff deadline until Aug. 1.

The full effect of steep new tariffs hasn’t been felt by shoppers yet, according to Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist at the National Retail Federation.

“However, if the large increases in tariffs announced earlier this year take effect and are sustained, they will infiltrate consumer prices, causing a downshift in spending,” he said in a July 8 blog post.

“Economic fundamentals appear solid at this juncture, but uncertainty is pervasive,” Kleinhenz said. 

Concerns over inflation, potential tariffs and product shortages are already pushing consumers to change their back-to-school shopping habits, reports also show.

According to Deloitte, 75% of parents said they will switch brands if their preferred brand is too expensive, up from 62% in 2024; 65% will shop at affordable retailers over their preferred stores.

And, 56% are cutting back on non-essential purchases altogether to save money, according to data from Intuit Credit Karma.

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Nearly two-thirds, or 62%, of shoppers also said they’ll begin back-to-school shopping before August, a significant…