U.S. stocks are poised for mixed movement on Thursday, with the S&P 500 notching a fresh record high while the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged lower ahead of a critical June jobs report. Trading was subdued as Wall Street prepared for an early close in observance of Independence Day.
Market overview: July 3, 2025
Here’s where major indexes stand now:
- S&P 500: 6,227.42 (+0.47%)
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: 44,484.42 (-0.02%)
- Nasdaq Composite: 20,393.13 (+0.94%)
S&P 500 futures ticked up 0.04%, while Dow and Nasdaq futures were also modestly higher in early trade.
Investors are eyeing several key economic indicators, including weekly jobless claims and the June employment report—both due Thursday morning before markets close early for the holiday weekend.
What’s driving the market today?
1. Anticipation builds ahead of June payrolls report
The Labor Department is expected to report a net gain of 110,000 jobs for June, slightly above May’s figure. The unemployment rate is forecast to tick up to 4.3%.
Economists and traders alike are watching closely. A weaker-than-expected number could boost the chances of Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year, with the CME FedWatch Tool now showing a 72% chance of a cut by September.
2. Trump’s new tax and spending bill in spotlight
Markets are also reacting to political headlines as former President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” awaits a vote in the House. The bill includes provisions impacting renewable energy tax credits and would eliminate the $7,500 EV credit on September 30—putting pressure on automakers like Tesla.
3. Stock-specific movers: Tesla, Adobe, banks
- Tesla (TSLA): Shares surged nearly 6% after the company beat delivery estimates for Q2 with 410,244 vehicles produced and 384,122 delivered.
- Adobe (ADBE): Dropped 4.5% after rival Figma filed for an IPO. Analysts also downgraded Adobe, citing growing AI competition.
- Banks: JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs rose following dividend increase announcements post-Fed stress test results.
Sectors and industries: Technology and energy shine
Technology stocks led the day, boosted by strong showings from Tesla and Oracle. Energy also gained, with coal and solar segments posting over 5% increases.
In contrast, the health sector dragged markets down. Managed care stocks like Centene (CNC), Elevance Health (ELV), and Molina Healthcare (MOH) all fell sharply. Centene plunged over 30% after withdrawing its 2025 outlook.
Notable stories and developments
- Quantum computing surge: Rigetti Computing (RGTI) soared 9% following a bullish analyst upgrade. Peers IonQ (IONQ) and D-Wave (QBTS) followed suit.
- Trade deal with Vietnam: Trump announced a tariff-slashing deal with Vietnam. Apparel stocks like Nike (NKE) and On Holding (ONON) briefly surged.
- Reddit (RDDT): Gained 5% after extending its credit facility maturity to 2030.
What to watch next
Thursday’s early economic data includes:
- Jobless claims
- Unemployment rate and wage growth
- ISM Services Index
- Factory orders
- Trade deficit
- Atlanta Fed President Bostic’s remarks
Market watchers are also preparing for Friday’s full market closure. U.S. equities and bonds will reopen Monday, July 7, with the next holiday closure scheduled for Labor Day.
Holiday trading reminder
- July 3 (Thursday): Early close at 1 p.m. ET
- July 4 (Friday): Markets closed for Independence Day
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