The White House has indicated that it could lower its tariffs on China, but experts say the exact figures might not make much of a difference.
Right now, the U.S. has 145 per cent blanket tariffs on Chinese goods, while China has a 125 rate on U.S. goods. The levies jumped to those levels earlier this month when both countries were engaged in a tit-for-tat raising of rates.
U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters Tuesday during a news conference that tariffs would “come down substantially,” but wouldn’t disappear completely. According to a report by the Wall Street Journal, one White House official said the Trump administration was considering cutting the rates from 145 per cent to somewhere between 50 and 65 per cent.
Eric Miller, international trade consultant and president of Rideau Potomac Strategy Group, says those figures are not enough of a decrease to make any real difference.
“While the levels of tariffs coming down are welcome, they’re not going to be significant enough to get the vast majority of trade back flowing again,” Miller said.
Miller says the current rates of 145 per cent are no different than a 1,000 per cent tariff — both effectively shut off trade between the countries.
The U.S.-China trade war is in full swing, with neither side showing signs of backing down. Andrew Chang explains how China is positioned to absorb the shock of U.S. tariffs and what this global economic disruption could mean for their place in the world order.
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Serious economic pain
Under the current levels, Miller says U.S. importers of Chinese goods are now expected to pay almost $1.50 in tax for every dollar’s worth of products they’re bringing into the country. “So by definition, they’re starting that process at a loss. That means that really nobody is going to be bringing goods in from China after a while,” Miller said.
He says that that’s already hurting American businesses, especially those that make things in the U.S. and rely on supplies or materials from China.
Any rates on China above 20 per cent (which is a rough average of how high Trump raised them during his first presidency) will cause serious economic pain, according to Miller.
“Once you start getting up … above 20 per cent, there’s a declining number of goods, really, that can be economic at those levels,” Miller said.
Under 50 or 60 per cent blanket tariffs, Miller says American companies would still be in a rush to move production out of China to avoid the measures.
Certain industries — like clothing, for example — would be effectively priced out of the market at 50 per cent, Miller says.
According to a 2024 report by the U.S. International Trade Commission, the U.S. imported $79.3 billion US of apparel from China in 2023, which accounted for 21 per cent of all clothing imports. Miller says that…
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