As Baltic states break from Russian grid, they brace for retaliation

The Baltic countries of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are bracing themselves for possible sabotage and cyberattacks this weekend as they complete their long-awaited decoupling from Russia’s power grid.

The Baltic states disconnected from the Moscow-controlled “BRELL” energy network on Saturday, and are due to complete their connection to the European electricity system on Sunday.

The Baltics’ grid operators said Saturday morning that the decoupling had been successful, and Lithuania’s Energy Minister Zygimantas Vaiciunas told a press conference, “The Baltic power system is finally in our hands – we’re in control,” in comments reported by Lithuanian broadcaster, LRT.

The decoupling is seen as a crucial way to ensure energy independence and security, and to dismantle the remnants of the post-Soviet era that have tethered the Baltic states to Russia.

Gert Auväärt, head of Estonia’s Cyber Security Centre, told CNBC that the country was working closely with its neighbors in the cybersecurity domain to prepare for potential risk scenarios when the decoupling takes place.

“The transition has been thoroughly planned, and experts assess the likelihood of serious problems as low. However, Russia may attempt to exploit this period to create uncertainty,” he said in emailed comments Thursday.

“Thanks to strong national and international cooperation, Estonia is well-prepared even for worst-case scenarios — though this does not mean such threats will materialize,” he added.

Whether Russia will let the Baltics’ momentous disconnection from BRELL — an acronym for Belarus, Russia, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania that refers to their 2001 agreement to synchronize their power grids — go unanswered remains to be seen.

But the potential for retaliation from Russia is being taken seriously by Baltic energy ministries and transmission system operators like Elering, Estonia’s state-owned grid operator.

“The preparations are complete, and we are ready for desynchronisation,” Kalle Kilk, head of Elering, said in a statement Thursday, describing the process as a “unique undertaking in the recent history of energy, in terms of its scale and complexity.”

“Although major technical changes always involve certain risks, we have analysed them thoroughly and developed appropriate action plans. With a planned transition, the average electricity consumer should not notice any change.”

“What cannot be predicted one hundred percent, however, is a situation where energy is used as a weapon. So, what is dangerous is not so much disconnecting from Russia, because we have been preparing for this for years, but continuing to be connected to the Russia electricity system,” Kilk said.

CNBC has asked the Kremlin and Russian Energy Ministry for comment and is awaiting a response.

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania joined the European Union in 2004, changing the dial in…