The stage is set for global streaming giant Netflix to disclose its fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results, including what is expected to be its final period of quarterly subscriber disclosures. After all, the company said last year that it is more focused on other performance metrics.
Led by co-CEOs Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters and executive chairman Reed Hastings, Netflix had ended September with 282.72 million global subscribers, with Wall Street experts estimating that it finished the year above the 290 million mark, helped by season 2 of Korean hit drama Squid Game and those Christmas NFL games.
Despite a recent drop in Netflix shares, which has left it down 5 percent so far this year as of Thursday’s stock market close, after a strong run-up last year, various experts continue to recommend the stock, some even as a top pick for 2025, and several analysts have further raised their price targets heading into the latest earnings report.
Here is a look at what some Wall Street observers have forecast and highlighted in their earnings previews.
Guggenheim Securities analyst Michael Morris maintained his “buy” rating on the stock and boosted his price target from $825 to $950 in his earnings note. “Netflix remains the undisputed streaming leader, and we continue to see that leadership position driving sustained, long-term shareholder returns,” he wrote. “However, shares are off 10 percent from their early December highs, compared to a 4 percent decline for the S&P 500, we believe due to 1) a demanding valuation, 2) a view that it is too early to see upside to 2025 guidance provided with third-quarter earnings, and 3) foreign-exchange headwinds driven by a stronger U.S. dollar in the fourth quarter.”
Expectations are that the streamer will “sunset regular member count disclosure on a high note on the back of big engagement for key live and franchise content,” Morris continued, citing Guggenheim colleague Seth Ostrie’s buy-side survey that shows a majority of investors predicting more than 11.1 million user net additions in the later quarter and 29 percent even forecasting more than 13.1 million. As a result, “we raise our estimate to 10.5 million versus our prior 9.5 million and sell-side consensus 9.1 million,” the analyst noted.
Like other experts, he warned of the financial impact of a strong dollar on Netflix’s latest results and in the near future, citing “foreign exchange-driven downward revisions to our 2025 estimates.”
Nonetheless, “we expect core revenue growth approaching 14 percent and long-term model upside fueled by global member growth runway, subscription pricing power, ad-revenue expansion, including a strong tailwind from expanded ad-supported content delivered to premium subscribers, and the company’s unique multi-market content sourcing strategy – a natural,…
Read More: Netflix Q4 Earnings Preview 2024: Subscribers, Advertising, Dollar
