Speaker Mike Johnson will face a major challenge in the new Congress – the narrowest House majority in nearly 100 years.
That is, if he can keep the gavel.
Republicans will soon control the House, Senate and White House. But thin margins could imperil President-elect Donald Trump’s agenda. And Johnson has little room for error when the House votes on Friday to elect a speaker for the new Congress.
Republicans won 220 House seats in the November elections, while Democrats won 215, the most narrowly divided House majority since the outset of the Great Depression, almost a century ago.
And the margin is set to quickly shrink even further.
When the House convenes, the partisan breakdown is expected to be 219 to 215 since former GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida has said he’s not returning to Congress.
From there, the majority is on track to drop to 217 to 215 with two GOP lawmakers expected to join the Trump administration.
At that point, House Republicans would not be able to afford a single defection to pass legislation along party lines until the vacancies are filled.
With Republicans in control of Washington, there will be intense pressure on GOP leaders to swiftly enact Trump’s agenda.
But the extraordinarily tight margin gives any rank-and-file lawmaker the ability to exert outsized influence by making demands on the speaker.
Johnson has already had to contend with that – frequently in the form of pressure from his right flank, a dynamic that now set to intensify.
Passing a bill in the House requires a majority of all members present and voting. The magic number is 218 if every member shows up to vote and all 435 seats are filled, but that can change if there are vacancies or absences. A tie vote in the House is a fail.
Read More: Live updates: Trump presidential transition news, House speaker vote
