Why it’s getting harder to get a free first-class flight upgrade

Cheap seats aren’t enough for airline passengers anymore.

Since the pandemic, travelers have shown airlines that they’re willing to pay up to sit at the relatively spacious front of the cabin. That means that many of the seats are already full, so it’s harder for frequent flyers to score free upgrades to the front of the airplane.

And the ranks of frequent flyers with elite status are swelling all the way from the airport lounge to the packed first boarding group, meaning more competition for those seats. Expect even more crowds during the year-end holiday period, which airlines predict will set another record.

Even in the off-season in early 2025, executives have been forecasting strong demand. U.S. airlines’ capacity in the first quarter will be up about 1% from a year earlier, according to aviation data firm Cirium.

“We’re seeing probably our best unit revenues on the transatlantic [routes], for example, in the dead of winter,” said Delta Air Lines President Glen Hauenstein at an investor day in November.

The price difference between first class and coach varies, of course, based on distance, demand, time of year and even time of day. For example, a round-trip ticket on United Airlines from its hub in Newark, New Jersey, to Los Angeles International Airport during the first week of February was $347 in standard economy and $1,791 in the carrier’s Polaris cabin, which features lie-flat seats, but not access to the international business-class lounge.

American Airlines‘ nonstop flight from New York to Paris during Easter week 2025 was $1,104 in coach and $3,038 in the airline’s Flagship Business class.

Billions of dollars in revenue that keeps airlines afloat hangs in the balance. Airlines’ loyalty programs are a cash cow, and getting the balance right between perks such as free upgrades and bringing in cash is key.

In recent years, airlines have changed the requirements to earn status, rewarding spending and not just the distance flown. They’ve also raised the amount flyers need to spend to be anointed with elite status. Next year, customers will have to spend more on United to earn status. On Thursday, however, American said it would keep its requirements the same for the next earning year, which begins in March.

About 15 years ago, travelers were paying for seats in just 12% of Delta’s domestic first class. Now, that is closer to 75% and climbing, Hauenstein told investors last month.

“We gave them away based on a frequent flyer system,” Hauenstein said about first-class seats in 2010 and earlier. “The incentive was to spend as least as possible, fly as long as possible and get upgraded as often as possible….