Sitting in a neighbourhood park in Philadelphia, just one day before the U.S. presidential election, registered voter Todd Miller said he would cast his ballot for Republican candidate Donald Trump this year. He regrets voting for Joe Biden in 2020 — and the economy is high on the list of reasons why.
“I feel the economy needs to change. I feel it’s on a downward trend,” Miller, an Oswego, N.Y., resident who was in town for a Philadelphia Eagles football game, said Monday.
“And I feel that there definitely needs to be change going forward because we’re not going in the direction that we need to be going in.”
Many voters have been telling pollsters the economy is the most important issue to them this election cycle. While it looks strong on paper — stable and growing at a faster pace than was expected — a lot of American voters are still feeling a bit glum about it all, no matter how good the data seems to say they should feel.
“I think the economy drives the overall morale of the nation. And if the morale is down, it creates a divide. The more we can patch up the divide, the economy is the No. 1 thing that’s going to do better,” Miller told CBC News.
As far as post-pandemic recoveries go, the U.S. is outshining its peers across the developed world on many fronts. Yet the data is a mess of contradictions.
The unemployment rate hit historic lows this year, but a recent jobs report shows that U.S. hiring has slowed. The value of homes is rising, but that makes homeownership a more expensive dream for those on the sidelines.
Consumer spending is strong, but household debt continues to tick upward. Wage growth has outpaced inflation, but perhaps not enough for everyone to feel like their purchasing power has kept up with the cost of living.
And the pain of inflation lingers even as the rate itself comes down — groceries in September were 2.3 per cent more expensive than they were at the same time a year ago.
“On the surface, because most things are in place for a very healthy U.S. economy, most things are in place that would suggest favouring the Democrats in this coming election,” said Sal Guatieri, director and senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.
On the flipside, “if the economy’s not doing well going into an election, [voters] tend to blame the incumbent party. That’s just natural,” Guatieri said.
Why the economic vibes are bad
Some voters agree that they don’t feel good about the economy, but diverge on who to point fingers at.
Amber Eylef, a Philadelphia resident and supporter of Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris, said the economy isn’t a major factor in her vote this year. But she thinks the economy is a mess — and assigned blame to Trump, who is trying to return to the White House.
“We’re still trying to clean…
Read More: The U.S. economy looks strong. So why don’t voters feel good about it?
