Backpacks, Stanley water bottles and No. 2 pencils. This year’s back-to-school must-haves are a mix of the new and the (very) old. But the most important thing shoppers are looking for doesn’t appear on any lists: good deals. The stores that can deliver the best ones will win the season. The back-to-school shopping season — an important stretch for retailers that usually begins in earnest in July and lasts through early September — comes at delicate time. Inflation, while trending down from multidecade highs, has taken its toll on consumers, particularly those in lower-income brackets. Most shoppers are increasingly choosy on where and how they spend their money. Credit card debt is rising , and the labor market has softened. That backdrop has some on Wall Street expecting lackluster spending as families prepare for their kids to return to the classroom. Retail-focused Telsey Advisory Group, for example, anticipates “somewhat modest growth and an overall tone of consumer caution from a macro perspective,” according to a recent note to clients. But that environment plays into the strengths of some retailers. In fact, Tesley Advisory argued discounters and internet retailers — like Club holdings TJX Companies and Amazon — “are ready to capture share during the back-to-school shopping season by highlighting value-focused school essentials and discretionary products.” “In what could be a disappointing back-to-school season for many as consumers pull back spending, a company like TJX should fare better,” Director of Portfolio Analysis Jeff Marks said. “Its stores have increasingly become a go-to place for people to shop at due to its focus on quality and value.” TJX is one of “the best retailers to own here,” added Jim Cramer during the Club’s August Monthly Meeting on Wednesday. Electronics and sporting goods retailers face a varied outlook, Telsey Advisory said. But it contended one “bright spot” for that group of companies, known as hardliners, is likely to be laptop purchases due, in part, to AI innovations. For that reason, Club holding Best Buy , which carries an exclusive assortment of AI laptops, may be relatively well-positioned. “Best Buy is harder to read because the new AI laptops are expensive,” Marks acknowledged, “but longer term it should benefit from the many needing to replace their pandemic-era models.” The July retail sales report released Thursday morning painted an encouraging picture for TJX, Amazon and Best Buy. While clothing and clothing accessories stores saw a 0.1% month-over-month decline, department stores were down 0.2% — a group that’s been ceding market share to off-price companies like TJX. Meanwhile, sales at non-store retailers, which includes e-commerce players like Amazon, were up 0.2%. Electronics and appliances stores, a group including Best Buy, were up 1.6%. Back-to-school and college shopping is one of the biggest retail stretches of the year, offering important insight into consumer and…
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