Climate-sensitive industries account for one third of U.S. GDP, or $9.4 trillion, according to the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Applying that to the world is $33 trillion of exposure risk for insurers.
The U.S. dodged a bullet in 2023, with $93 billion in weather related damages from a record number (28) billion-plus dollar events. While the 2023-dollar damages were down from -48% from 2022 and -33% below the 10-year average, that changed in 2024. Just about every weather peril is up in 2024, with the number of tornadoes and wind events being the most in 13 years and in the top 3% of recorded history.
The earliest Category 5 Hurricane in 175 years of U.S. hurricane records ultimately made a U.S. landfall southwest of the Houston metro area, with wind and major flooding damage. In February 2024, West Texas experienced the worst wildfire in recorded Texas history, with over a million acres burned. And now, we await what everyone expects to be a very active Atlantic Basin-core hurricane season.
Weather Trends has year-ahead global weather forecasts by week across every mile on Earth, employing a statistical, 24-climate cycle approach to the science of meteorology and climate forecasting. These very specific forecasts don’t change once issued, making weather risk assessments for businesses more actionable.
Traditional meteorology is physics-based and limited to short-range 14-day outlooks. Others use some oceanic and atmospheric climate indices for an “analog” approach, where current cycles are compared to past history to make a seasonal forecast, but these often lack specifics to be actionable for business or insurance applications, or they’re too vague.
Examples of long-range 2024 forecasts include:
1) The most active tornado/wind season in 13 years (since the record year of 2011) and top 5% of U.S. history.
2) Floods more like 2019 and 1993, with a forecast up +52% over last year. This happened in the Northeast, Midwest Rivers and East Texas, amongst other areas. Weather Trends forecasted the Upper Midwest to have the wettest spring in 5 years and the 2nd wettest in 40 years, with high-risk flooding. NOAA’s month-ahead forecasts implied a 33% chance of above average rainfall, but this usually does not quantify the forecast to make it actionable for weather risk management groups.
3) Wildfires: the most in four years, +168% over last year. This happened with the TX fire, and now the fires are rapidly developing in the Western U.S.
4) Hurricane season: the most damaging in seven years, with expectations of the 3rd most active season in 175 years, with high risk to Texas. Hurricane Beryl hit the Houston area, with the worst flooding since Hurricane Harvey in 2017.
These events were predicted months to a year ahead with specificity that allows insurers and risk managers to make actionable decisions on things like:
1) Should they take on more exposure in Texas in 2024 with an already high Texas…
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