Unwinding of carry trade will benefit Japan, Monex Group’s Koll says

Corrections in the yen and the unwinding of the carry trade are positive developments for Japan, said Jesper Koll, a veteran investor who remains bullish on the Japanese market.  

“It forces investors to focus on the real Japan strategy … not just a quick carry trade, borrowing at close to zero interest rates in Japan and investing in high risk assets,” Koll, expert director at Monex Group, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Tuesday. 

The yen carry trade began unwinding last week, as interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan strengthened the yen, and led to a sharp sell-off in markets globally.

“I actually think that the massive and violent correction that we got last week is actually quite healthy,” said Koll, adding that the weakness of the yen had been responsible for the Nikkei reaching record highs.

“It is correct to put a price on money. To have an economy that runs on zero interest rates, to have an economy where the central bank dominates the buying of government debt, it’s just not capitalism the way it’s supposed to work,” Koll added.  

Former head of the European Central Bank Jean-Claude Trichet also told CNBC last week that the correction in the U.S. dollar-yen was long “overdue” and likely “healthy” for markets. 

According to Koll, it’s possible that as much as 75% of the yen carry trade could have been unwound, though the total size of the carry trade has not been reliably ascertained.

Following historic losses at the start of last week, Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock index made a sharp recovery. It rose as much as 3% on Tuesday.  

Koll said that financial markets had been more spooked by fears of a hard landing in the U.S. and a collapse in the U.S. two-year Treasury note rather than the Bank of Japan’s move to raise interest rates. 

Shinichi Uchida, the Bank of Japan deputy governor, said last Wednesday that in the face of global volatility, the bank needs to maintain monetary easing with the current policy interest rate.

The BOJ summary of monetary policy meeting released a day after Uchida’s statement, however, pointed to a willingness among policymakers to raise rates further.

Koll predicts that the BOJ will not remain cautious for too long and will soon continue their normalization of interest rates, with the policy rate likely to be at around 1.5% by this time next year.

This will help shift focus from the “froth economy” brought about by Japan’s previously long-held near-zero interest rates to the domestic economy, he said, adding that corporate restructuring and a sustained growth in real wages make a bullish case for Japan.

Real wages in Japan grew 1.1% in June compared to a year ago, the first time that wages have risen in 26 months.