Shipping data shows mid-range retail is new consumer price sweet spot

The latest shipping data is beginning to reveal what U.S. retailers expect from shoppers during peak season — a discerning U.S. consumer looking for deals and discounts in the mid-range price category, according to the exclusive CNBC Supply Chain Survey.

This is the time of year when most freight orders start to be placed to get ahead on inventory for back-to-school and holiday shopping, and the response from supply chain respondents to the survey suggests a healthy, if cautious consumer, and a holiday season that is shaping up to be within a normal range.

According to the respondents, based on the freight orders they are scheduled to move during peak season, U.S. companies will be importing slightly more items for the holidays this year as compared to last year.

The CNBC survey, conducted between April 16 and May 3, includes responses from the National Retail Federation, American Apparel and Footwear Association, United National Consumer Suppliers, CH Robinson, OL USA, ITS Logistics, Kuehne+Nagel, DHL, and Uber Freight, a subsidiary of Uber Technologies.

Almost 80% of current freight orders received for peak season are for mid-range price items, the survey shows. Similar to last year, respondents expect less consumer appetite for luxury and aspirational luxury items imported.

Noah Hoffman, head of retail logistics for C.H. Robinson, tells CNBC that the economy is at an inflection point with consumer discretionary spending.

“We’re seeing that in clothing and jewelry, in electronics, and home and garden,” said Hoffman. “Consumers have also become more value-driven in their shopping. Instead of going to one store and stocking up regardless of how much toilet paper is already stashed in the garage, they’re trying to avoid a larger bill. They’re buying tighter, not throwing as many impulse buys in the cart and shopping around for the lowest price.” 

Participants indicated that they have received fewer orders for the transport of cheaper, promotional items, compared to 79% of those surveyed saying they are expecting consumers to shop in the middle-price-point space. A majority of respondents (69%) said they expect consumers to continue to search for discounts.

According to Hoffman, general leeriness among retailers continues.

“The past few years have made many shippers hypersensitive to the highs of the highs and the lows of the lows,” he said. “They’re wondering when the next shoe will drop – whether that might be geopolitical, new trade policy, or another physical disruption like the low water levels in the Panama Canal. But especially for retailers, they may wait to see how the economy shakes out.”

The world’s second-largest ocean freight company, Maersk, recently told CNBC it…