California counties with high Covid vaccination rates helped Newsom win

California Gov. Gavin Newsom has called his decisive victory in this week’s recall election a win for vaccines and science. The data backs him up.

A CNBC analysis of county-level results — which are preliminary as mail-in ballots continue to be tallied — found a strong link between support for Newsom and counties with high Covid vaccination rates as of Election Day, Sept. 14.  

People in counties with high Covid vaccination rates overwhelmingly voted to keep him in office. Conversely, people in counties with lower vaccination rates voted to oust the governor. 

“‘No’ is not the only thing expressed tonight. I want to focus on what we said ‘yes’ to as a state,” Newsom said late Tuesday in Sacramento, thanking his supporters. “We said ‘yes’ to science, we said ‘yes’ to vaccines, we said ‘yes’ to ending this pandemic.” 

The analysis also reveals that people in many smaller California counties were less likely to support Newsom and get vaccinated. 

Of the 23 counties with fewer than 100,000 residents, 17, or about three-quarters, voted “yes” on the recall. Meanwhile, only 10 of the 35 counties with more than 100,000 residents voted in favor of the recall. 

Those small counties were also more likely to have lower vaccination rates. Eighteen of the 23 reported less than 50% of residents were fully vaccinated as of Election Day, according to a CNBC analysis of California Department of Public Health data.

Lassen County, for example, has an estimated population of about 30,600 as of 2019 and a current vaccination rate of nearly 22%. Roughly 84% of its voters voted “yes” on the recall.

Similarly, Modoc County has an estimated population of 8,800 as of 2019 and a current vaccination rate of 36.3%. Seventy-eight percent of its voters also favored the recall.

On the other end of the spectrum, Los Angeles County has an estimated population of over 10 million as of 2019 and a vaccination rate of 59.5%. Its voters strongly supported Newsom, with 70.8% voting “no” on the recall. 

The majority of counties that are classified as rural or mostly rural were also less likely to support Newsom and get vaccinated, according to the Census Bureau’s latest rural area data, from 2010. The Census Bureau defines rural as any population, housing or territory not within an urban area or areas with 50,000 or more residents.

Ten out of the 11 counties classified as rural or mostly rural in California voted “yes” on the recall. This includes Amador County, Calaveras County, Lassen County, Mariposa County, Modoc County, Plumas County, Sierra County, Siskiyou County, Tehama County and Trinity County, according to data from the California secretary of state.

As of Election Day, all 10 of those counties reported…